Pakistan Conflict Monitor

Army Chief Balances All Sides of Conflict

Pakistan General Balances All Sides of Conflict, Associated Press, 29 July 2010

EXCERPT: "As the U.S. searches for an exit from Afghanistan, it is increasingly relying on Pakistan's powerful army chief to help pave the way — despite fresh allegations that spies under his command have long aided the Taliban. Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani's critical role in the Afghan conflict was reinforced this month when the civilian government extended his term by three years. Kayani, 58, is known to be popular among U.S. and NATO generals who have sought to enlist his help in battling militants along the country's border with Afghanistan. So crucial is Kayani to the American war effort that when classified documents were posted by Wikileaks this week suggesting that Pakistani spies led by Kayani had colluded with the Taliban, the Obama administration didn't utter a word of opprobrium against him publicly. [...] Analysts believe talk of dubious alliances shows Kayani's desire to put Pakistan's interests first, no matter what that means for Washington or Kabul."

Read the full story.

Related articles:
Kayani's gambit, The Economist, 29 July 2010
Stand by your man, The Economist, 28 July 2010
Kayani, a man for many seasons, Foreign Policy // The AfPak Channel, 23 July 2010

Related posts:
Army chief granted a three year extension, 22 July 2010
Army chief pays a controversial visit to Washington, 22 March 2010
Pakistan's chief spy to stay on another year, 11 March 2010
Insurrection, terrorism, and the Pakistan army, 11 December 2009
The Pakistan military: Change and continuity, 16 October 2009

Changing Demographics of the Army's Officer Corps

The Changing Pakistan Army Officer Corps [pdf], Atlantic Council's South Asia Center // Center for Peace and Security Studies, Georgetown University via the Human Security Gateway, 14 July 2010

EXCERPT: "The Pakistan army elicits many concerns about terrorism, nuclear proliferation and the coherence of the state. However, very little is actually known about this institution. This essay mobilizes unique data to address one important facet: the army’s geographical recruitment base. We find that the Pakistan army has been successful at expanding the geographical recruitment base while some groups (namely those who are native to Sindh) remain highly under-represented. We also find that the officer corps is increasingly coming from urban areas. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of these important shifts subject to the limitations of our data. [...] Unfortunately, there are few sources of empirical data about the Pakistan army despite these varied concerns about the army and its role in Pakistan’s security and that of the region. This essay, employing unique and difficult to obtain district-level officer recruitment data from 1971 to 2005, explores an important aspect of the institution: its geographical representativeness over time."

Read the full article [pdf].

Related articles:
Pakistan extends term of Army chief amid applause - and doubt, The Christian Science Monitor, 23 July 2010
The Kayani era continues, Foreign Policy // The AfPak Channel, 23 July 2010
Pakistan's military and national politics, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 3 September 2008
Punjab’s dominance in army being reduced: ISPR, DAWN, 14 September 2007

Related posts:
Insurrection, terrorism, and the Pakistan army, 11 December 2009
The Pakistan military: Change and continuity, 16 October 2009

Army Chief Granted a Three Year Extension

Pakistan Army Chief Granted 3-Year Extension, The New York Times, 22 July 2010

EXCERPT: "The government granted a three-year extension to Pakistan’s army chief on Thursday, an extraordinary move that reflected his enormously powerful influence in a country with a potent mix of Islamic insurgents and a history of military takeovers. The extended appointment of the army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani, had been rumored for some time and was announced via television by the prime minister, Yusuf Raza Gilani. The general had been scheduled to retire in November. 'In the best interest of the nation, I have decided, after consultation with President Asif Ali Zardari, to give a three year extension to the army chief,' the prime minister said. He praised General Kayani and credited him with successfully overseeing the effort against militancy and terrorism in the country. 'The success of military operations was made possible under the command of Gen. Ashfaq Pervaiz Kayani,' the prime minister said. Mr. Gilani also defended the decision as essential to ensure continuity of command."

Read the full story.

Related articles:
Kayani: Pakistan's quietly powerful army chief, DAWN, 22 July 2010
US denies reports of Hillary lobbying for Kayani's extension, The Hindustan Times, 21 July 2010
Clinton seeks more from Pakistan in terror fight, AFP, 19 July 2010
Afghan peace efforts will succeed: Gen Kayani, Daily Times, 30 June 2010

Related posts:
Army Chief pays a controversial visit to Washington, 22 March 2010
Pakistan's chief spy to stay on another year, 11 March 2010
The Pakistan military's adaptation to counter-insurgency in 2009, 27 January 2010
Insurrection, terrorism, and the Pakistan army, 11 December 2009
The Pakistan military: Change and continuity, 16 October 2009

US Troops in Pakistan to Oversee Development Projects

U.S. Forces Step Up Pakistan Presence, The Wall Street Journal, 20 July 2010

EXCERPT: "U.S. Special Operations Forces have begun venturing out with Pakistani forces on aid projects, deepening the American role in the effort to defeat Islamist militants in Pakistani territory that has been off limits to U.S. ground troops. The expansion of U.S. cooperation is significant given Pakistan's deep aversion to allowing foreign military forces on its territory. The Special Operations teams join the aid missions only when commanders determine there is relatively little security risk, a senior U.S. military official said, in an effort to avoid direct engagement that would call attention to U.S. participation. The U.S. troops are allowed to defend themselves and return fire if attacked. But the official emphasized the joint missions aren't supposed to be combat operations, and the Americans often participate in civilian garb. Pakistan has told the U.S. that troops need to keep a low profile. 'Going out in the open, that has negative optics, that is something we have to work out,' said a Pakistani official. 'This whole exercise could be counterproductive if people see U.S. boots on the ground.' Because of Pakistan's sensitivities, the U.S. role has developed slowly. [...] Today, the U.S. has about 120 trainers in the country, and the program is set to expand again with new joint missions to oversee small-scale development projects aimed at winning over tribal leaders, according to officials familiar with the plan."

Read the full story.

Related articles:
Building trust in Pakistan through carrots and sticks won't work, The Brookings Institution, 21 July 2010
US leverage on Pakistan to get Osama, says Clinton, DAWN, 21 July 2010
US sees Pakistan PR triumph, Al Jazeera, 20 July 2010
Building not buying trust in Pakistan, Foreign Policy // The AfPak Channel, 19 July 2010

Related primary documents:
Clinton's remarks with Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi following the US-Pakistan strategic dialogue, Council on Foreign Relations, July 2010

Related posts:
Distrust slows US training of Pakistanis, 12 July 2010
US special ops aiding Pakistan's "hold and build" operations, 13 April 2010
US to expand Pakistan training program, 12 February 2010
Response to US troop presence surprisingly muted, 4 February 2010
US forces conducted secret raids into Pakistan, 22 December 2009

Military's Influence Hinders Political Progress

To Spite Zardari, Pakistan Military Foiled Peace Talks, Hindustan Times, 10 July 2010

EXCERPT: "When the prime ministers of India and Pakistan met in Thimpu in early May, Yousuf Raza Gilani indicated he had the full support of Pakistan’s military to resume the dialogue with India. But by the time the foreign ministers of the two countries met in mid-July, the men in khaki had become opposed to any dialogue. Three developments, say sources in both countries, led them to change their minds. The first was the political resurgence of President Asif Ali Zardari. [...] Second was David Coleman Headley’s testimony.[...] Third was the attack by the Punjabi Taliban on the Data Durbar shrine in Lahore on July 1.[...] New Delhi now has a clearer understanding that the military remains directly and forcefully involved in running the show in Islamabad, admit officials, especially when it comes to relations with India. The military’s political games at home, however, mean dialogue will not be high on its priority list and make medium-term prospects for the Indo-Pakistan peace process bleak."

Read the full story.

Related articles:
Pakistan's ISI spreading network in Tripura, Sify News, 19 July 2010
Pak demand proves ISI, Army dictating terms, The Economic Times, 19 July 2010

Related posts:
Torture prevalent in security forces' custody: Report, 25 June 2010
Army chief pays a controversial visit to Washington, 22 March 2010
Military "biggest obstacle" to reconciliation with Taliban, 9 February 2010
Govt, military wary of US overtures, 25 January 2010
Pakistan's military balks at Obama's Afghan surge, 20 January 2010

Political Dimensions of Police Reform in Pakistan: Report

Political Dimensions of Police Reform in Pakistan [pdf], Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 14 July 2010

EXCERPT: "Few reforms would make more of an impact on Pakistan’s security and political situation than reforming the civilian security forces, particularly the police. Only a strong police force can prevent the expansion of radicalism by tackling the problem at the grassroots level. Only a strong police force, working with local administration and the judiciary, can provide long-term security. Strong and efficient security forces are also the only way to diminish the civilian government’s dependence on the army to ensure domestic security. They can help restore confidence in the government and its ability to protect people. Increasing the capacity of the police will lead to greater efficiency in security management and, as a result, increase the legitimacy of the regime. These goals have been the cornerstone of assistance programs to Pakistan’s police service, including the hundreds of millions of dollars in U.S. assistance to be spent annually on police reform contained in the much-talked-about Kerry-Lugar-Berman law. The link between security and legitimacy is obvious in most countries, including in dictatorial regimes where the need to re-establish security is often the pretext for taking power. However, the causality between security and legitimacy is somewhat distorted in the case of Pakistan."

Read the full report [pdf].

Related articles:
Police open fire on thousands of protesters in Kashmir, The Canadian Press, 19 July 2010

Related posts:
Police struggle to battle militants in Pakistan, 6 July 2010
Torture prevalent in security forces' custody: Report, 25 June 2010
Court orders inquiry into past cases of police torture, 5 March, 2010
Public dismayed by crisis of governance, 18 January 2010
Pakistan slips five places in Transparency International Corruption Index, 18 November 2009

Army Accused of 238 Extra-judicial Killings in Swat

Pakistan Army Accused of Extrajudicial Killings in Swat, BBC News, 16 July 2010

EXCERPT: "The Pakistani army has carried out 238 extrajudicial killings of people in the Swat Valley since September last year, says a report from Human Rights Watch. It documents cases where members of the army allegedly took away Taliban suspects, who were later found dead, their bodies riddled with bullets. A military spokesman denied the army had engaged in extrajudicial killings. The army said it had driven insurgents from Swat following a massive offensive against them last year. [...] The HRW report says that while police have also been involved in the killings, most of them have been carried out by the army. It details seven cases where Taliban suspects have been arrested and taken away by the army. Their bodies have later been found with bullet wounds and marks of torture. In one case, the report names a specific unit of the army, the 12th Punjab regiment, as being responsible. According to the report, the regiment detained a resident of the Matta area of Swat, Farman Ali, along with two other men on 28 March this year. The bodies of the other two men were later produced by the military and presented as Taliban militants who had allegedly been killed in a clash with the army. Then Mr Ali's body, with a gunshot wound to the head, turned up in a field on 26 May."

Read the full story.

Related articles:
Pakistan: Extrajudicial executions by Army in Swat, Human Rights Watch, 16 July 2010

Related posts:
13 detainees killed while attempting to escape: Army, 15 July 2010
Families claim suspected militants killed in detention, 8 July 2010
Torture prevalent in security forces' custody: Report, 25 June 2010
Millions suffer from Taliban abuse: Amnesty report, 10 June 2010
Human Rights Watch accuses Pakistan army of unlawful killings, 6 April 2010

China-Pakistan Relations

China-Pakistan Relations, Council on Foreign Relations, 6 July 2010

EXCERPT: "Since establishing diplomatic ties in 1951, China and Pakistan have enjoyed a close and mutually beneficial relationship. Pakistan was one of the first countries to recognize the People's Republic of China in 1950 and remained a steadfast ally during Beijing's period of international isolation in the 1960s and early 1970s. China has long provided Pakistan with major military, technical, and economic assistance, including the transfer of sensitive nuclear technology and equipment. Some experts predict growing relations between the United States and rival India will ultimately prompt Pakistan to push for even closer ties with its longtime strategic security partner, China. Others say China's increased concern about Pakistan-based insurgency groups may cause Beijing to proceed with the relationship in a more cautious manner."

Read the full backgrounder.

Related articles:
China's patience paying off in Central Asia, World Politics Review, 14 July 2010
Afghanistan in China's emerging Eurasian transport corridor, The Hudson Institute, 14 July 2010
Call for China-India initiative for Pakistan stability, The Hindu, 12 July 2010
China-Pakistan military relations, World Politics Review, 9 July 2010
Chinese separatists tied to Norway bomb plot, The New York Times, 9 July 2010
China says terror bust underscores enduring threat, The Associated Press, 24 June 2010

Related reports:
China's caution on Afghanistan-Pakistan [pdf], The Washington Quarterly, July 2010

Related posts:
Intensifying China-Pakistan ties: Interview, 7 July 2010
China, Pakistan to hold third anti-terror drill, 24 June 2010
Pakistan to assist China against Uighur separatists, 18 June 2010
Pakistan's jihadist movements and the challenge to China, 25 February 2010
Pakistan, China to jointly work on counter-terrorism strategy, 13 November 2009

Govt Orders "Crackdown" on Banned Outfits in Punjab

Pakistan Orders "Crackdown" on Militants: Police, AFP, 12 July 2010

EXCERPT: "Pakistan's political heartland has ordered a crackdown on militants after a series of devastating attacks and accusations of links to banned groups, officials said Monday. New Delhi and Washington have long demanded that Pakistan root out extremist Islamist militant groups that use its soil to launch attacks across the country, as well as in neighbouring Afghanistan and India. But the details and scope of the apparent crackdown -- which comes just days before Pakistan is due to host India's Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna for talks in Islamabad -- were unclear. 'The government has ordered a policy of zero tolerance against all these groups. There are at least 2,000 to 2,200 activists of banned outfits being closely monitored in Punjab,' police official Akram Naeem Bharoka told AFP. 'We have very clear instructions from the government that no outlawed organisation should be allowed to continue their activities in any part of the province,' Bharoka said."

Read the full story.

Related articles:
"Banned terror outfits highly active in Pak Punjab, functioning under new names", Sify News, 12 July 2010
53 held during crackdown on banned outfits in Punjab, Daily Times, 12 July 2010
Pak police launches crackdown on outlawed groups in Punjab, HIndustan Times, 12 July 2010
Pak gets tough on jihadi bands but exempts JuD, The Times of India, 12 July 2010

Related posts:
Pakistan bans 23 militant outfits, 6 July 2010
Pakistan army finds Taliban tough to root out, 5 July 2010
Taliban regroup in areas thought secure, 24 June 2010
Punjabi Taliban split from established militant groups, 17 June 2010
Despite govt's denials, police report suggests Talibanization of Punjab, 17 May 2010

Army, Tribal Leaders Offer Conflicting Views on Reconstruction Progress

Army Working Towards Development of S Waziristan, The Associated Press of Pakistan via The Express Tribune, 8 July 2010

EXCERPT: "[...] In addition to completing scores of multi-purposes projects in South Waziristan by Pakistan army, developmental schemes on various sectors including education, health, communication and water are underway in South Waziristan. [...] Malik Aman Khan and Malik Allah Yar Khan on behalf of tribal people on this occasion thanked the army chief for initiating a number of projects in South Waziristan and highly appreciated the army’s efforts for establishing the girls’ college and the roads projects, which was their decade-old demand.  [...] They assured full support to Pak Army in their future endeavours and vowed to fight alongside the military for the defence of the country."

Read the full story.

Ahmadzai Tribe Asked to Expel Militants or Face Action, The News International, 8 July 2010

EXCERPT: "General Officer Commanding (GOC) Kohat Maj-Gen Rizwan on Tuesday asked the Ahmadzai tribal jirga in Wana to expel foreign fighters, Punjabi Taliban and Mahsud militants from the area or else the government would take action against them. [...] Tribal sources said Maj-Gen Rizwan reminded the jirga members their 2007 peace accord in which they had promised not to shelter to foreigners in the area. He said the government and the military leadership was satisfied with exemplary peaceful environment in the areas inhabited by the Ahmadzai Wazir people but some unwanted elements were now adamant to damage this peace and push them into trouble. [...] Malik Ajmal Khan [tribal elder] told the jirga that the Ahmadzai Wazir people always supported the government in troubled times and rendered sacrifices but the government never fulfilled its promises of development projects for their areas."

Read the full story.

Related articles:
Situation in SWA deteriorating gradually, The News International, 8 July 2010
Majority of reconstructive work complete in S. Waziristan: Officials, The Express Tribune, 7 July 2010
Militants wiped out from South Waziristan: Army, The Express Tribune, 1 July 2010

Related posts:
Security forces fail to stop influx of militants in S. Waziristan: Jirga, 6 July 2010
Al-Qaeda commander killed in S. Waziristan drone strike, 30 June 2010
Humanitarian access still a challenge: Experts, 14 May 2010
More troops needed as casualties mount in S. Waziristan: Analysts, 5 May 2010
Despite army's assurances, tribal leaders reluctant to return, 23 April 2010