Fatality Data, Civilian

Overview

The violence in Pakistan has resulted in tremendous civilian hardships. The recent surge in terrorist attacks has inflicted heavy civilian casualties.

However, precise estimates of civilian fatalities are difficult to obtain and thus wary widely. News reports provide an imprecise measure of fatalities. In some cases, such as during the South Waziristan operation, media has not been allowed into the theatre of operations, limiting its ability to report. Some research institutes track civilian, militant and security personnel fatalities but these estimates are often based on open-source, media reports and should be treated with caution.

This section will be updated with up-to-date data on civilian casualties. In the mean time, visit our posts labelled Civilian fatalities.

Statistics

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*Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program (Date of retrieval: 10/04/20) UCDP Database: www.ucdp.uu.se/database, Uppsala University

Latest estimates:

• "During the year [2009], military operations in the FATA and the NWFP killed approximately 1,150 civilians, and militant attacks in FATA and NWFP killed 825 more civilians. Sectarian violence in the country killed approximately 1,125 individuals. More than 65 suicide bombings throughout the country killed an estimated 970 individuals. In Balochistan, the ongoing low-level insurgency killed approximately 125 civilians, according to media reports." 2009 Human Rights Report: Pakistan, US Department of State, 11 March 2010


• "During the year the military engaged in active combat operations to clear militants from North and South Waziristan, Malakand Division of the NWFP, and the Bajaur, Mohmand, and Khyber Agencies of the FATA. Dawn News reported that more than 3,300 persons, including personnel of law enforcement agencies and armed forces, were killed in terrorism-related incidents across the country. Newspaper reports of major incidents also showed that 1,037 persons lost their lives in 76 suicide attacks. December saw the highest number of suicide attacks, 15, which claimed 211 lives. A low-level insurgency continued in Balochistan. According to NGOs and media reports, at least 800 militants, approximately 125 civilians, and 91 members of the security forces died as a result of the ongoing insurgency from January through late November. According to the AHRC, more than 100 individuals were killed in July and August alone." 2009 Human Rights Report: Pakistan, US Department of State, 11 March 2010


• "A record number of Pakistani civilians and security forces died in militant violence last year as the country reeled from an onslaught of Taliban suicide bombings that propelled it into the ranks of the world's most perilous places. Pakistan saw 3,021 deaths in terrorist attacks in in 2009, up 48% on the year before, according to a new report by the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), an Islamabad-based defence think-tank. Researchers counted a total of 12,600 violent deaths across the country in 2009, 14 times more than in 2006. At least half of the dead were militants who were killed in US drone strikes or, mostly, sweeping army offensives against their mountain strongholds of Swat and South Waziristan along the Afghan border. Another 2,000 or so Pakistanis died in bloodshed unrelated to militancy: political clashes, tribal feuds and border skirmishes." Pakistan Suffers Record Number of Deaths Due to Militant Violence, The Guardian, 11 January 2010


• "Meanwhile, FATA emerged as the epicentreof lawlessness, with the Federal Government losing control. At least 5,238 persons were killed in 3,836 incidence of violence in FATA in 2009, as compared to 3,067 in 1,154 violent incidents in 2008." Pakistan Assessment 2010, South Asia Terrorism Portal

Civilian Casualties from Drone Strikes in Pakistan

Data:

The year of the drone: An analysis of US drone strikes in Pakistan, 2004-2010, New America Foundation, Frequently Updated

Analyses of civilian casualties resulting from drone strikes suggest the following:

• "Our study shows that the 127 reported drone strikes in northwest Pakistan, including 31 in 2010, from 2004 to the present have killed approximately between 885 and 1,314 individuals, of whom around 596 to 936 were described as militants in reliable press accounts. Thus, the true civilian fatality rate since 2004 according to our analysis is approximately 30 percent." The year of the drone: An analysis of US drone strikes in Pakistan, 2004-2010, New America Foundation, 16 April 2010


• "Pakistan's Dawn newspaper reported: 'According to the statistics compiled by Pakistani authorities, the Afghanistan-based US drones killed 708 people in 44 predator attacks targeting the tribal areas between January 1 and December 31, 2009.' 'For each al Qa'eda and Taliban terrorist killed by US drones, 140 innocent Pakistanis also had to die. Over 90 per cent of those killed in the deadly missile strikes were civilians, claim authorities.'" US Drone Attacks Killed 700 Civilians, Officials Say, The National, 4 January 2010 and Over 700 Killed In 44 Drone Strikes In 2009, DAWN, 2 January 2010


• "Since 2006, our analysis indicates, 82 U.S. drone attacks in Pakistan have killed between 750 and 1,000 people. Among them were about 20 leaders of al Qaeda, the Taliban, and allied groups, all of whom have been killed since January 2008...However, of those killed in drone attacks from 2006 through mid-October 2009, between 500 and 700 were described in reliable press reports as militants, or some 66 to 68 percent. Based on our count of the estimated number of militants killed, the real total of civilian deaths since 2006 appears to be in the range of 250 to 320, or between 31 and 33 percent.", Revenge of the Drones, An Analysis of Drone Strikes in Pakistan, New America Foundation, 19 October 2009


• "Despite the sharp increase in both the frequency and total number of casualties resulting from Predator strikes since mid-2008, civilian casualties have remained very low. Naturally, it is difficult to determine the exact number of civilians killed in Predator strikes for many reasons - including intentional exaggeration by Taliban spokesmen, and vague accounts by Pakistani media sources which frequently report that a certain number of "people" were killed in a strike, but rarely offer a follow-up report identifying which victims were civilians and which were militants. However, it is possible to get a rough estimate of civilian casualties by adding up the number of civilians reported killed from the media accounts of each attack. According to this method, a total of 94 civilians were reported killed as a result of all strikes between 2006 and September 29, 2009. Considering that drone strikes have resulted in 979 total casualties during that same time period, our numbers show that only 9.6% of the casualties reported have been identified as civilians. While our number is undoubtedly a low estimate, this extremely small percentage suggests that the accuracy and precision of these strikes have improved along with the increased pace of these strikes over the past few years.", Analysis: A look at US Airstrikes in Pakistan through September 2009, The Long War Journal, 1 October 2009


• "Of the 60 cross-border predator strikes carried out by the Afghanistan-based American drones in Pakistan between January 14, 2006 and April 8, 2009, only 10 were able to hit their actual targets, killing 14 wanted al-Qaeda leaders, besides perishing 687 innocent Pakistani civilians. The success percentage of the US predator strikes thus comes to not more than six per cent.", 60 drone hits kill 14 al-Qaeda men, 687 civilians, The News International, 10 April 2009

Conflict Fatalities Data Updates

Casualties of Terrorist Violence in Pakistan, South Asia Terrorism Portal
Pakistan Security Reports, Pak Institute for Peace Studies
Tribal Region Conflict Reports, Pak Institute for Peace Studies
Violence in Pakistan: Trend Analysis May 2009, Institute for Defence and Security Analyses