Pakistan Conflict Monitor

Lashkar-e-Taiba Expands Focus, Links with Al-Qaeda

Lashkar-e-Taiba’s Growing International Focus and Its Links with al-Qaeda, The Jamestown Foundation // Terrorism Monitor, 29 July 2010

EXCERPT: "Recent revelations that several so-called 'home-grown militants' connected to terrorist plots in Europe, North America and Australia had passed through camps controlled by Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) have generated growing concern that the group may be emerging as a new global actor working in collaboration with al-Qaeda. Compounding these fears is evidence that LeT’s ideological and operational focus is now going well beyond the liberation of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and the foment of an Islamist revolution in India. However, while ties with al-Qaeda cannot be fully discounted, LeT’s close relationship with the Pakistani state combined with its fabled discipline and tight organizational cohesion would seem to suggest that it is not (yet) morphing into another affiliate of Bin Laden’s global Islamist enterprise. [...] Although the LeT has always promoted an international agenda (promising, for instance, to plant the Islamic flag in the capitals of the United States, Russia and Israel), it has mostly focused its activities on local and regional theaters. Today, there is as much emphasis given to fighting Washington and allied governments supportive of the global war on terror as on staging attacks in India and J&K. [12] This shift in focus is arguably supported by LeT’s alleged involvement in the aforementioned attacks and other plots in the UK, Australia and Bangladesh."

Read the full story.

Related articles:
Lashkar-e-Taiba has become global threat: Admiral Mullen, Times of India, 25 July 2010
India fears LeT strike at Commonwealth Games: Report, The Hindu, 25 July 2010

Related posts:
LeT seeks to destabilise South Asia, ISI-Taliban links a problem: Holbrooke, 22 July 2010
Pakistan bans 23 Militant outfits, 6 July 2010
Lashkar-e-Taiba increasingly independent, ambitious: Report, 19 March 2010
US worries LeT might trigger India-Pakistan war, 11 March 2010
Lashkar-e-Taiba: One year after Mumbai, 26 November 2009

Pakistan Aids Insurgency in Afghanistan: Leaked Reports

Pakistan Aids Insurgency in Afghanistan, Reports Assert, The New York Times, 26 July 2010

EXCERPT: "Americans fighting the war in Afghanistan have long harbored strong suspicions that Pakistan’s military spy service has guided the Afghan insurgency with a hidden hand, even as Pakistan receives more than $1 billion a year from Washington for its help combating the militants, according to a trove of secret military field reports made public Sunday. The documents, made available by an organization called WikiLeaks, suggest that Pakistan, an ostensible ally of the United States, allows representatives of its spy service to meet directly with the Taliban in secret strategy sessions to organize networks of militant groups that fight against American soldiers in Afghanistan, and even hatch plots to assassinate Afghan leaders. Taken together, the reports indicate that American soldiers on the ground are inundated with accounts of a network of Pakistani assets and collaborators that runs from the Pakistani tribal belt along the Afghan border, through southern Afghanistan, and all the way to the capital, Kabul. Much of the information — raw intelligence and threat assessments gathered from the field in Afghanistan— cannot be verified and likely comes from sources aligned with Afghan intelligence, which considers Pakistan an enemy, and paid informants. Some describe plots for attacks that do not appear to have taken place"

Read the full story.

Related articles:
US lawmaker says leaks paint 'outdated' Pakistan picture, DAWN, 26 July 2010
ISI denounces US intelligence reports, DAWN, 26 July 2010
US says Wikileaks could "threaten national security", BBC News, 26 July 2010
What is Wikileaks?, BBC News, 25 July 2010
WikiLeaks works to expose government secrets, but Web site's sources are a mystery, The Washington Post, 19 May 2010

Related resources:
The Afghan War Diary, WikiLeaks, 25 July 2010

Related posts:
Pakistan in the danger zone: A tenuous US-Pakistan relationship, 29 June 2010
Negotiating with the Taliban: Issues and prospects, 28 June 2010
ISI trains, funds, and supplies Taliban: Report, 14 June 2010
US praises Pakistan's "excellent cooperation"; Security pledge made, 19 May 2010
NATO, Pakistan to pursue closer relations, February 4 2010

Mosque Attacks Aim to Exploit Sectarian Rift, Follow Qaeda Strategy

Islamists Exploit Sectarian Shrine Rift in Pakistan, The Washington Times, 21 July 2010

EXCERPT: "[...] Multiple suicide bomb attacks on Pakistan's most sacred Muslim shrine in Lahore, the country's cultural capital, have exposed this rift between the nation's two largest Islamic sects. Members of the Barelvi sect, which esteems shrines, have condemned adherents of Wahhabi, which regards historic sites as idols that should be destroyed and whose followers include elements of the Taliban, al Qaeda and other radical Islamist groups. Government officials and analysts say exploiting the differences between the sects is part of a strategy by al Qaeda and its local affiliates to foment unrest and find new sanctuaries in cities, as well as recruit militants. The July 1 attack on the centuries-old Data Darbar complex, which houses the tomb of Muslim sage Hazrat Ali Hajveri, left 45 people dead and triggered large-scale protests against the provincial government of Punjab for harboring and abetting terrorists. The attack on the mosque appears to have strengthened anti-Taliban and anti-al Qaeda sentiment in Pakistan, but it also is prompting new fears of large-scale sectarian clashes in Pakistan's provinces."

Read the full story.

Related articles:
Engaging Pakistan's moderate majority, Foreign Policy // The AfPak Channel, 22 July 2010
Police arrest 60 Sunni Tehrik activists in Pak, Zee News, 16 July 2010

Related posts:
Deobandi elders warn of sectarian rift following recent terror attack, 14 July 2010
Pakistan's largest sect to take action against Taliban, 9 July 2010
Coordinated suicide attacks kill at least 42 in Lahore, 5 July 2010
At least 80 killed in attacks on minority sect, 28 May 2010
Religion, politics and governance in Pakistan, 23 February 2010

Blast Evidence Suggests Militants Switching Tactics: Official

Tension Ramped Up a Notch in Pakistan, Asia Times Online, 21 July 2010

EXCERPT: "The discovery of a 'shaped charge' - an explosive charge shaped to intensely focus the effect of the explosive's energy - at the scene of a recent attack in Pakistan has raised fears that al-Qaeda aims to switch from targeted terrorist attacks to a high-level insurgency - a form of urban guerrilla warfare. A senior Pakistani counter-terrorism official confirmed to Asia Times Online that evidence of a 'shaped charge' device was found after the twin attacks this month at the shrine of a Sufi saint in the eastern Pakistani city of Lahore in which more than 40 people were killed and nearly 200 injured. Shaped charges are more traditionally used to penetrate armor, but insurgents in Iraq used them to good effect in improvised explosive devices. 'This is simply preparation for urban guerrilla warfare in Pakistan, like al-Qaeda previously launched in Iraq,' the official said. [...] Military operations in the tribal areas in 2008 and 2009 were successful in that they forced militants to pull back from urban areas, where maintaining the peace on a long-term basis was left in the hands of the police and the local administrations. These, though, are riddled with corruption. Most police appointments in Pakistan are deeply politicized and made with political consent rather than on merit. Aware of this, the Americans and top Pakistani security agencies tried to make sure that appointments in the crucial region of Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa were made on merit."

Read the full story.

Related articles:
Key Pakistani counter-terrorism official resigns, The Associated Press, 20 July 2010
"Five militants killed in NW Pakistan attack", AFP, 20 July 2010
Six injured in two Lahore blasts, DAWN, 18 July 2010
Three killed, 20 injured in Sargodha suicide attack, DAWN 19 July 2010
24 Bajaur militants surrender, The News International, 19 July 2010

Related posts:
US pressure on Pakistan "off-target", 9 July 2010
Failed counterinsurgency strategy leads to rising number of US terror plots: Report, 21 June 2010
Al-qaeda, Taliban loosely align in Pakistan to survive, 20 May 2010
Taliban groups expand alliances, share expertise, 7 May 2010
Al-Qaeda threat assessment, 26 February 2010

US Pressure on Pakistan "Off-target"

US Pressure on Pakistan Off-target, Asia Times, 10 July 2010

EXCERPT: "[...] United States State Department counter-terrorism coordinator Daniel Benjamin, who holds the rank of ambassador at large, headed a delegation of counter-terrorism and intelligence officials for another round of strategic dialogue in the capital Islamabad on Thursday. [...] With Pakistan dragging its feet on starting a military offensive against militants in the North Waziristan tribal area, Thursday's talks focused on joint anti-terrorism measures and intelligence-sharing against groups operating in Pakistan's urban centers. [...]  However, this ignores the fact that more than 1,000 Arabic speakers live in the tribal areas and al-Qaeda can make use of them as needed. The latest example is Egyptian Sheikh Fateh al-Misri, the new al-Qaeda number three and chief of operations in Afghanistan. He previously had no direct links to al-Qaeda. These are the targets that the US would need to eliminate, yet it is putting pressure on Pakistan to go after jihadis in the cities. This also places Islamabad in an awkward position, as it has traditionally separated jihadi groups (most of which it nurtured) from anti-state forces like al-Qaeda, and even used them against al-Qaeda."

Read the full story.

Related articles:
Is Al-Qaeda now just a brand?, Newsweek, 8 July 2010
Former Gitmo detainee arrested in Pakistan, The Long War Journal, 6 July 2010
Counting Al-Qaeda, Foreign Policy // The AfPak Channel, 1 July 2010

Related media:
Afghanistan, Pakistan forge closer ties [audio], NPR, 9 July 2010

Related posts:
Failed counterinsurgency strategy leads to rising number of US terror plots: Report, 21 June 2010
Taliban leader seeks alternatives to N. Waziristan offensive, 9 June 2010
N. Waziristan on the agenda, poses operational challenges: General, 11 May 2010
US special ops aiding Pakistan's "hold and build" operations, 13 April 2010
Deadly blasts in Pakistani cities as army push continues, 2 November 2009

US Terror Plot Investigation Uncovers Global Network, Pakistan Ties

US Accuses Top Al-Qaeda Leaders in NY Bomb Plot, AFP, 8 July 2010

EXCERPT: "US prosecutors accused top Al-Qaeda leaders Wednesday in an alleged attempt to bomb New York's subway, saying the failed plot was part of a Pakistan-based campaign against US and British cities. The indictment dramatically broadened the case in which Afghan immigrant and Colorado resident Najibullah Zazi pleaded guilty earlier this year to conspiring to set off explosions in the metro system in 2009. 'The charges reveal that the plot... was directed by senior al-Qaeda leadership in Pakistan and was also directly related to a scheme by al-Qaeda plotters in Pakistan to use Western operatives to attack a target in the United Kingdom,' the Department of Justice said in a statement. At a time of growing 'homegrown' terrorism incidents, the indictments underlined the US view that ruthless foreign-based Al-Qaeda groups, rather than a rag-tag and amateurish collection of US residents, are the main threat. Five people are charged in the indictment unsealed in New York federal court."

Read the full story.

Related articles:
Factbox: Profiles of men charged in al Qaeda plots, Reuters, 8 July 2010
Terror suspect Abid Naseer held on US warrant, BBC News, 8 July 2010
Norway announces three arrests in terror plot, The New York Times, 8 July 2010
Al-Qaeda operative is charged in NY subway plot, The Washington Post, 8 July 2010
Qaeda leader indicted in New York subway plot, The New York Times, 7 July 2010

Related primary documents and reports:
Charges unsealed against five alleged members of Al-Qaeda plot to attack the United States and United Kingdom, The US Department of Justice, 7 July 2010
Can al-Qaeda use Islam to justify jihad in the United States? A debate in progress, The Jamestown Foundation // Terrrorism Monitor, 1 July 2010

Related posts:
Al Qaeda-inspired terrorism "biggest threat" to UK: Report, 5 July 2010
Failed counterinsurgency strategy leads to rising number of US terror plots: Report, 21 June 2010
US and UK models of radicalization compared, 13 May 2010
"Pakistan Taliban" behind NY plot, 10 May 2010
Arrests show growing internationalism of Pakistani militant groups, 10 December 2009
The Pakistan-Britain terror connection: Lessons and warnings for the United States, 13 November 2009

Analysis of Obama’s Counter-terrorism Goals in AfPak

An Analysis of Obama’s AfPak Goal and First Objective: Setting the Baseline and Prospects for Success [pdf], Pakistan Security Research Unit, 29 June 2010

EXCERPT: "The Obama administration developed in 2009 a series of goals, objectives, and metrics to measure progress in its campaigns against al-Qaeda and Taliban insurgents in Afghanistan and Pakistan (AfPak). We examine two of those in this Report: the overall goal of defeating al-Qaeda in AfPak, and the supporting objective of disruption and degradation of 'terrorist networks' in AfPak. Early 2009 'baselines' are set for both the goal and the objective. We then conduct a critical review of important events and trends through April 2010. We conclude that Obama’s goal and first objective is approximately two-thirds complete, with greater future effort necessary in Pakistan than in Afghanistan."

Read the full report [pdf].

Related articles:
Terror camps still operate in Pakistan tribal areas: DOJ, RTT News, 8 July 2010

Related posts:
Pakistan in the danger zone: A tenuous US-Pakistan relationship, 29 June 2010
Al-Qaeda at its weakest, Bin Laden in Pakistan, drones legal: CIA Chief, 28 June 2010
Al-Qaeda, Taliban loosely align in Pakistan to survive, 20 May 2010
Taliban, Al-Qaeda cooperation "at the highest limits": Siraj Haqqani, 15 April 2010
Al-Qaeda threat assessment, 26 February 2010

Groups that Create Militias Unacceptable: Interview

Interview: Groups that Create Militias Are not Acceptable to Pakistan, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 7 July 2010

EXCERPT: "Pakistan's ambassador to the United States, Husain Haqqani, says that Islamabad sees the Taliban as a threat to its security, both in Afghanistan and, increasingly, in Pakistan itself. [...] [Q]: There are three Talibans, to judge by media use of the terminology. One is outside Pakistan: the Afghanistan Taliban. The two others are inside Pakistan: the Pakistani Taliban in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), and the Punjabi Taliban, in Pakistan's province of Punjab. How does Pakistan regard these groups and the challenges they pose for the country? [A]: The government led by President Asif Ali Zardari has consistently maintained that we consider all Taliban, whether their sphere of operations is Afghanistan or Pakistan, and other militant groups that are affiliated with or associated with the Taliban, as a threat to our own security as well as to the security of our region and the world. [...] Secondly, we also believe there is no purely military solution to the problem, that there also has to be a socioeconomic and a political dimension to the solution. [...] The only legitimate group with a legitimate right to use force in Pakistan should be the state of Pakistan. All other groups that create militias, that want to act as an army of their own, they are not acceptable to the state of Pakistan. And that has enabled many of these groups to come together in a time of adversity because they are under attack."

Read the full interview.

Related articles:
Al-Qaeda's new man eyes Pakistan, Asia Times Online, 8 July 2010
80 percent of Kurram Agency cleared of terrorists, Daily Times, 7 July 2010
Suicide attacks in Pakistan are haram: Saeed, Daily Times, 7 July 2010
Former Gitmo detainee arrested in Pakistan, The Long War Journal, 6 July 2010

Related posts:
Pakistan army finds Taliban tough to root out, 5 July 2010
Govt efforts at Taliban reconciliation complicated by Haqqani's ties to Al-Qaeda, 30 June 2010
Negotiating with the Taliban: Issues and prospects, 28 June 2010
Overview: What have Pakistani offensives achieved?, 27 April 2010
Pakistan's foreign minister on combating militancy: Interview, 30 March 2010

Al Qaeda-inspired Terrorism "Biggest Threat" to UK: Report

Islamist Terrorism: The British Connections [pdf], The Centre for Social Cohesion, July 2010

EXCERPT: "Al-Qaeda and al-Qaeda inspired terrorism remains the biggest threat to the UK’s national security. The Security Service estimates that over 2,000 people in the UK pose a terrorist threat and in March 2005 it was estimated that there were up to 200 al-Qaeda trained operatives in the UK. The British-based threat does not only affect the UK: a number of British Muslims have been convicted in foreign courts or have fought for (or trained with) terrorist or extreme Islamist groups abroad. [...] The most common country of heritage for Britain’s Muslim population, in recent years Pakistan has been a popular site for terrorist training. Osama Nazir, formerly a senior member of the Pakistani terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammed and associate of 7/7 bomber Shehzad Tanweer, said that between 2001 and 2005 he believed over 300 British Muslims of Pakistani origin had visited Pakistan to attend training camps and enrol for suicide bomb missions. Furthermore, in November 2008 the Security Service revealed that over 4,000 British Muslims had attended terrorist training camps in Afghanistan and Pakistan."

Read the full report [pdf].

Related articles:
Terrorism in Britain "mostly home grown", report says, The Telegraph, 5 July 2010

Related posts:
Afghanistan, Pakistan get higher priority at DfID, 26 May 2010
Britain says Pakistan aid rises despite crunch, 21 January 2010
Arrests show growing internationalism of Pakistani militant groups, 10 December 2009
The Pakistan-Britain terror connection: Lessons and warnings for the United States, 13 November 2009
Transnational ties: Islamist terror plots in UK, 27 October 2009

Pakistan Army Finds Taliban Tough to Root Out

Pakistan Army Finds Taliban Tough to Root Out, The New York Times, 4 July 2010

EXCERPT: "In an offensive nearly two years old, the Pakistani Army has been fighting Taliban militants in the nation’s tribal areas and beyond, and like the United States across the border in Afghanistan, it is finding counterinsurgency warfare tougher, and more costly, than anticipated. Months after declaring victory on several important fronts, including in South Waziristan and the Swat Valley, the army has been forced to reopen campaigns after militants seeped back in. [...] Much like the challenge facing American and NATO forces in Afghanistan, an absence of Pakistani civilian authority has made it nearly impossible to consolidate military gains. While eliminating some Pakistani Taliban insurgents, the long campaign has dispersed many other fighters, forcing the Pakistani Army in effect to chase them from one part of the tribal areas to another.As the campaign drags on, the Pakistani military relies more and more on American-supplied F-16 fighter jets and Cobra helicopter gunships to bomb militants in areas of treacherous terrain, increasing civilian casualties, according to reporters and Pakistani officials in the tribal areas."

Read the full story.

Related articles:
Analysis: Fusion of militants brings new threats, The Associated Press, 5 July 2010
Pakistan renews call for dialogue with some Taliban, Reuters Canada, 5 July 2010
Pakistan weighs up chances in post-McChrystal era, BBC News, 2 July 2010

Related posts:
Negotiating with the Taliban: Issues and prospects, 28 June 2010
Taliban regroup in areas thought secure, 22 June 2010
Overview: What have Pakistani offensives achieved?, 27 April 2010
More than 200,000 flee violence in tribal regions, 9 April 2010
Pakistan epicentre of global jihadism: Report, 25 January 2010